Friday, March 4, 2011

February Market Update

Pending Sales & Sales Success
In the Central Virginia Multiple Listing Service, Pending Sales for February are up by 20.73% to 1,124 versus February of last year at 931 that went under contract. With 2,640 newly listed homes this month and 1,124 under contract, the sales success index of 42.58% for February advanced 27.54% versus last year’s index of 33.38% in 2010.

Average Prices
According to the February 2011 statistics, our market area has experienced some downward momentum with the decline of average prices at closing. Prices dipped 16.70% to $178,686 versus the previous year February at $214,496. This is a difference in price of $35,810.
 
Cautionary Note: This does not mean that the value of an average home went down. It is an indication that there are more buyers for lower priced homes.

New Listings & Months Supply of Inventory
New Listings in this area for the month of February yielded 2,640 available resale dwellings. This was a decline of 5.34% or 149 units in comparison to February 2010. The total housing inventory at the end of February dipped by 9.67% to 11,846 existing homes available for sale. At an average of 1,047 closed sales per month over the last 12 months (March 2010 - February 2011), represented an unsold inventory index of 11.32 Month Supply of Inventory for Central Virginia.

Bottom of the Market

Volatility is the norm for the bottom or top of the market. It is hard for prices and demand to reflect immediately on each other but we are seeing stronger demand and if it continues prices will go up. Reports of multiple offers are occurring more frequently. The only way to know for sure whether this is the bottom is to look back a year or two from now. At that time we will be saying; "I hit the bottom just right" or "I wish I had bought my house earlier and gotten more for my money."

Data Compiled From Central Virginia Regional MLS by RE Stats. on March 3 2011.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Week 5 Real Estate and relate news round-up




The Census Bureau released its quarterly report on residential vacancies and homeownership on January 31, 2011. The homeownership rate dropped .4% to 66.5%, its lowest level since 1998. 


Still, the traffic online, where I imagine most folks go before even heading to an open house, is an important sign, as we head into the Spring market. 


From this blog, yesterday: The 743 new contracts represents an increase of 4.8% over last year. 


Las Vegas always wins the title for worst foreclosure rate in the country. But these 10 unexpected cities have the fastest-growing rates out of the 100 worst-hit places.



In a little bit of a contrarian view to whats happening.
"Eighty million baby boomers are about to retire," went the argument. "They're not going to hang around in places like Chicago, New York, Boston and Pittsburgh all winter if they can help it.


liminating the deductions for mortgage interest and real estate taxes would raise taxes disproportionately for middle-class households and make the tax system less progressive, according to a new study from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

Friday, February 4, 2011

January contracts up over last year

The Richmond area saw an increase of 34 new contracts for single family homes in January of 2011 over 2010. The 743 new contracts represents an increase of 4.8% over last year.

Though there are details concerning pricing that we will not know until after they close, the average size of the homes appears to be approximately 100 square feet larger.
The price they were listed for is only $1,300 more than the closed sales from last year. Based on our list to sales price ratio, I would expect to see about a 3 - 3.5% decline in average prices. I expect the average price per square foot to come in about 4.5% less than for the same period last year.
What does this mixed bag of info mean? Maybe nothing. What I suspect is that the prices have caught up with (lower) demand, and we may be seeing what the bottom of the market looks like.
I would love to hear your thoughts.