May Review (Prelim)

Preliminary numbers indicate 1126 new contracts for May 2011 versus 726 for May 0f 2010. This represents a 55% increase in sales over last year. The primary difference was the tax credit that pulled sales forward last year.

This is consistent with the leveling and stabilizing of the market, that I have been discussing this year. The year to date contracts are virtually identical for the first five months of 2011 versus 2010. And generally reflect a more normal seasonal curve rather than the tax credit distorted curve of the previous 2 years.

There are 2 areas of concern. First, an 8% decrease in average price per square foot that is probably caused more by the fact that we are selling an older home on average. Second, flat or fewer (will take several days to get all new contracts in MLS) new contracts for May versus April. Historically, new contracts accelerate through May reflected in fewer closings as the summer goes on. This would seem to indicate that sales slowed slightly ahead of schedule.

I’ll update in a few days when the information in the MLS is more complete.

April Market Update

Pending Sales & Sales Success
In this market segment, Pending Sales for April are down by 23.36% to 1,165 versus April of last year at 1,520 that went under contract.

With 2,176 newly listed homes this month and 1,165 under contract, the sales success index of 53.54% for April decreased 0.74% versus last year’s index of 53.94% in 2010.

Average Prices
According to the April 2011 statistics, this market area has experienced some downward momentum with the decline of average prices at closing. Prices dipped 4.13% to $221,490 versus the previous year April at $231,022. This is a difference in price of $9,532.

New Listings & Months Supply of Inventory

New Listing in this area for the month of April yielded 2,176 available resale dwellings. This was a decline of 22.78% or 642 units in comparison to April 2010.

The total housing inventory at the end of April dipped by 14.56% to 7,634 existing homes available for sale. At an average of 791 closed sales per month over the last 12 months (May 2010 - April 2011), represented an unsold inventory index of 9.66 MSI for this market segment.
Reports produced and compiled by R E S T A T S I n c

The months supply of inventory is illustrative for planning purposes, but the current demand as ilustrated by new contracts above gives us just over a 6.5 month supply of inventory. this is a further indication that we are returning to a more normalized market.

March Market Update

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) Decreases
New Listing in this area for the month of March yielded 2,288 available resale dwellings. This was a decline of 19.29% or 547 units in comparison to March 2010. 


The total housing inventory at the end of March dipped by 12.19% to 7,645 existing homes available for sale. At an average of 813 closed sales per month over the last 12 months (April 2010 - March 2011), represented an unsold inventory index of 9.40 MSI for this market segment.

Average Prices
According to the preliminary trends, this market area has experienced some downward momentum with the decline of Average Price this month. Prices dipped 4.60% in March 2011 to $197,786 versus the previous year at $207,327.



Sales Success for March 2011 is Positive
In this market segment, Pending Sales for March are down by 8.70% to 1,092 versus March of last year at 1,196 that went under contract. With 2,288 newly listed homes this month and 1,092 under contract, the sales success index of 47.73% for March advanced 13.13% versus last year’s index of 42.19% in 2010.Reports produced and compiled by R E S T A T S I n c.




Bottom of the Market?
Continued volatility, with some trends up and others down is consistent with being at or near the market bottom. The decrease in the number of homes sold was expected as the prior year had sales pulled into the period in order to take advntage of the tax credit.

Overall sales were up for the first quarter and if flat or up in the second quarter may finally be signalling that we have been to the bottom.